NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Home mortgage rates ticked lower after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank will continue to keep interest rates low.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage slipped to 5.55% from 5.58% the week prior, and the 15-year fixed fell to 4.89% from 4.93%, according to the weekly national survey from Bankrate.com.
Recently rates have been "yo-yoing as corporate earnings announcements and economic data toy with investor sentiment," the report noted.
On Wednesday Bernanke gave his semi-annual congressional testimony on the state of the economy, saying the central bank will "likely keep interest rates low for an extended period of time," the Bankrate report noted.
A separate Thursday report showed sales of existing homes disappointed again in June, rising just 3.6%.
Current mortgage rates remain much lower than last year's levels, when the average 30-year fixed was 6.77%, according to Bankrate.com.
At the current rate of 5.55%, the monthly payment on a $200,000 mortgage would be $1,141.86, or about $158 less than the monthly payment at last year's rate.
Adjustable-rate mortgages: ARMs "continue to post mixed results," the report said, with the average 1-year ARM rising to 5.23% from 5.22%, and the 5-year ARM falling to 4.93% from 4.98%. ![]()
| 30-YR | 5.375 | 2.125 |
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| Investors have sold low-risk bonds to move into stocks as economic recovery hopes have grown. And falling bond prices push up bond yields. |
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| Even though the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has risen sharply in the past few months, rates are still considerably lower than where they were just a few years ago. |
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has shot up to about 3.7% this week following auctions of $40 billion auction in 2-year notes Tuesday, $35 billion in 5-year notes Wednesday and $26 billion in 7-year notes Thursday. Simply put, it's growing increasingly difficult to imagine that there will be enough demand for all these Treasurys.
"The market is having a tough time absorbing all this debt. There's so much supply," said Stephen Mahoney, a portfolio manager with Glenmede Investment Management, an investment firm in Philadelphia with about $4 billion in fixed income assets.
The bond auctions are setting off alarm bells for people who believe the government is spending too much money to finance the myriad programs aimed at getting the economy back on solid footing. The stimulus package passed by Congress and the alphabet soup list of rescue plans launched by the Treasury and Federal Reserve for the nation's financial system could cost more than $10 trillion. The fear is that all this liquidity will lead to inflation down the road. To that end, some point to the recent deterioration in the dollar versus other currencies and the rise in oil prices as evidence that inflation is already starting to creep back into the economic picture.
But let's take a step back and a deep breath for a moment. While the spike in bond yields is alarming because of how quickly it has taken place - the yield on the 10-year was as low as 2.2% in early January - rates are still, by all normal measures, relatively low. Long-term Treasury yields are now around the level they were at in early September before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. And much of the slide in yields between that point and earlier this year was due to investors panicking. They were unloading stocks, commodities and other assets and flocking to what they thought to be the only safe bet left on the planet - U.S. Treasurys.
The world has changed a lot since then - or at the very least, the perception of it has. Most investors are no longer fearing massive bank failures and another Great Depression. Instead, many are betting on a recovery. So it's no coincidence that stocks have soared at the same time bonds have fallen.
"Investors are increasingly willing to take on more risk," said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist with Key Private Bank in Cleveland. "There has been a change in market psychology and the perspective on the economy. And when the flight to quality ends, people often look to sell Treasurys to buy other assets."
With that in mind, it's important to try and figure out where bonds will go next. Are yields going to keep heading north or stabilize around this level? If it's the latter, that's not necessarily a terrible thing. Remember, the 10-year yield is now at a 6-month high, not a 6-year high.
"The rise in rates has not been severe enough to put recovery at risk just yet. Plus, rates usually rise heading out of recessions," McCain said.
But if rates head substantially higher, that could put upward pressure on the rates for many consumer and business loans. In fact, it's already happening. According to the most recent weekly survey about mortgage rates from Bankrate.com, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 5.24% a week ago to 5.45% this week. Mahoney said the yield on the 10-year could go as high as 3.75% in the short-term. (Yields briefly touched that level Thursday afternoon.) And he thinks that could cause the Fed to step up its purchase of long-term Treasurys in order to try and drive rates lower again. The Fed announced in March it planned to buy $300 billion in long-term Treasurys, but Mahoney believes the Fed needs to be more aggressive to prove that it's committed to keeping rates low - particularly to investors like China and Japan that own a lot of Treasurys.
"If rates continue to go up because of more supply, that's not going to bode well overseas," he said. And that could just make things worse because sales by big foreign investors could fuel further spikes in bond rates.
"If rates continue to rise, it could slow down the economy," Mahoney said. "Mortgage rates would go higher which could hurt the housing market -- and the housing market is what brought us into this mess."
A little entry written earlier today was pretty good. Basically, the cyclical aspect of accounting has created a bailout loophole for the banks. Read below...
Banks To Get Huge Windfall From. . . Mortgages?
No, you haven't just woken up from a terrible dream to realize it's still 2005. This is current news that mostly got lost in today's other news. An interesting article from Bloomberg today explains how some of the big banks who made major acquisitions, like JP Morgan (Washington Mutual), Wells Fargo (Wachovia) and Bank of America (Countrywide) will reap huge profits from the mortgages held by the trouble institutions that they purchased.
From the article:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. stands to reap a $29 billion windfall thanks to an accounting rule that lets the second-biggest U.S. bank transform bad loans it purchased from Washington Mutual Inc. into income.
Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of America Corp. and PNC Financial Services Group Inc. are also poised to benefit from taking over home lenders Wachovia Corp., Countrywide Financial Corp. and National City Corp., regulatory filings show. The deals provide a combined $56 billion in so-called accretable yield, the difference between the value of the loans on the banks' balance sheets and the cash flow they're expected to produce.
How is this possible? Turns out when they purchased these banks, they marked those mortgages down even lower than what they turned out to be worth. As a result, those mortgages will end up performing better than where they were valued at acquisition. That means a huge accounting profit.
Ever since I took accounting many years ago, I always thought it seemed like a game. Looks like I was right. This situation raises the question: if these banks had properly valued those mortgages, would they have needed the huge bailouts that they were provided? After all, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Bank of America got $25 billion each. Their windfall might cover most or all of that according to this article. That also means many of those mortgage-related write-downs taken last year will probably be erased by these profits.
What is a Breakeven Analysis?
A Breakeven Analysis is making a quantitative model that take into account what your new payment is including the new rate, taxes, and insurance as well as all the closing costs. These numbers are tabulated then compared to your old payment for future months. The delta or difference between those two payments (with the closing costs considered as well) is added and eventually surpasses the cost that it took to do the loan. The goal here is to set a time in the future where, if the number is breakeven before that future date, then the loan makes sense to do. Back in the day, it was about a year. Now days, it could be a bit of a longer time period. If the property will be held for a longer period of time (say, at least 3 to 5 years or longer) then a firm 12 month period no longer applies.
Let me know if I can help you take a look at this. It is a very useful decision tool. Great rates out there!
aloha,
c